July 5th, 2016 Holloway, MN Tornado

Tornadoes: 1

Highest wind gust: ~40 mph

Largest hail: dime-sized

Chase partner: Matt Magiera

During the first few days of July, Matt and I were watching a potential setup in the northern Plains on the 5th. On the 4th of July, we pulled the trigger on deciding to go, so after spending time late at night at a friend's house after fireworks, I headed home to get a few hours' worth of sleep before the long drive to southwestern Minnesota. At sometime around 5:30 the following morning, Matt arrived at my house, and we began the long haul to a target somewhere near Marshall, MN. We constantly joked about how we were probably going to drive 9 hours to see a shelf cloud, which in reality was my expectation, and probably his, too.

<---SFC to 500mb analysis at 21z 05 July 2016

An elongated trough was positioned across the northern tier of the country with a subtle shortwave impulse moving eastward through the Dakotas and Minnesota by afternoon. Forecast wind profiles were not incredible by any stretch, with only "good enough" winds of 35 knots or less from 500mb down, but if surface winds backed sufficiently, it appeared there could be a tornado threat near the triple point and warm front. Many of the models at times did not back the winds a great deal, with some runs coming in with SSW surface flow and a linear mess. But there was enough potential for our then-unemployed selves to bite on it.

SPC went Enhanced for their morning outlooks before upgrading to Moderate as confidence grew in the potential for a derecho-like event. They acknowledged the potential for initial supercells with their 5% tornado and 30 hatched hail probs offset just west of the 45% wind area. However, they too had concerns over storm mode and surface winds veering.

The 18z observed sounding from Minneapolis gives good insight into the type of wind profiles (at least above 700mb, as the critical surface features were west of MPX at that time) as well as thermodynamic profiles setting up across Minnesota that afternoon:

CAPE values in excess of 4000 j/kg created an atmosphere primed for explosion of any convection that could develop and become surface-based. As we approached the target area from the east on I-90, elevated storms developed just north of the warm front. We contemplated the potential evolution of those storms through the next several hours, and decided to keep a close eye on them should one move right and tap into the favorable surface-based thermodynamics in the warm sector.

While driving, Matt pointed out several K-H waves in the fair weather cumulus clouds, discussing how they relate to highly-sheared environments. Something I didn't know at the time.

An MD and then Tornado Watch were issued as storms were expected to develop at any time:

Indeed, after a quick stop at Walmart in Marshall, it was obvious the southern cell was doing just what we suspected may happen. It went from the fuzzy, elevated storm look to a rapidly exploding, crisp-towered, crisp-anviled supercell, and had taken a noticeable right turn on radar. We began the approach from the south.

We finally got a good visual of the base. At first, we got the southern flank of the RFD confused with the main cyclonic circulation, but we soon got into position to view the base. We pulled over on a small gravel back road near Holloway/Appleton and watched as a massive RFD carved out the updraft of the supercell. Matt was getting a first look at the 20z SPC outlook under the inflow tail:

Literally seconds after taking this photo, we noted rapidly moving condensation right near the ground. It was a multiple vortex tornado, and a large one at that. Eventually it filled in to become a near-wedge or wedge. Frame grab of mine, contrast enhanced:

Another contrast enhanced frame grab, this time zoomed out to see the entire mesocyclone, including the massive RFD cutout of the updraft, as well as the tornado:

Video:

Within a minute or so, the tornado became rain wrapped, likely dissipating shortly after. We pressed on, determined to witness any other tornado the supercell was going to produce. It cycled again as we watched rain curtains in the RFD wrap around the south side of the circulation:

It didn't produce another tornado. After this cycle occluded, it became somewhat clear that the storm was hopelessly HP and outflow dominant even though it maintained its tornado warning. We pressed east, and a little south, trying to maintain our position ahead of it. The structure was amazing. Stacked plates were present at times before it became more of a squall than a supercell.

Wonky positive CGs were occasionally being flung out the front of the gust front, one of which Matt was lucky enough to capture on his DSLR:

We eventually came to the realization that the storm was becoming less and less impressive, and the main show of truly renewed afternoon development was still yet to happen across eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota. Supercells did begin to develop across eastern SD, and we began racing that way. I was a little more than slightly amused by the fact that Matt didn't have to use his wipers in a downpour because of a recent Rain-X coating. Not much later, it became evident that those, too, were falling apart, so we began the trek to Minneapolis to find something to eat and a place to spend the night. The tradition of successful northern Plains chases being followed by a dinner at Perkins was kept.

Minneapolis skyline at sunset:

After finally finding a place to spend the night, we decided that in the morning we would go to Mall of America since neither of us had been to Minnesota before. We figured we might as well visit the most iconic location in the state while we were there.

We spent 75% of our time there in a Best Buy. Which again, I was a little more than slightly amused by. Mostly because I live in a corn field in Illinois and had never been to one before.

After blowing a couple of hours there, we officially began the trip back home.

GPS History: