April 25th, 2016 Cap Bust
Tornadoes: 0
Highest Winds: N/A
Largest Hail: N/A
Chase Partners: none
Over a month since the last Illinois setup, a cold front setup with modest CAPE but steep lapse rates presents itself in the final days of April. This day I was at school awaiting dismissal while watching mesoanalysis and satellite imagery closely. Although the risk wasn't zero, I was more excited for the risk of a legitimate large hail threat since supercells in this part of the country tend to be much less prolific hail producers than out in the Plains.
A 15% hatched for large hail was introduced for portions of northern Illinois and extreme southern Wisconsin:
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was later issued:
When school let out, it was clear that I needed to position north for better odds at initiation. Through a Twitter conversation, I had also agreed to meet Matt Magiera and Scott Matthews (who I'd never met) at the Mendota McDonald's. I shot up I-39 after getting my hastily-made laptop mount assembled, and finally met Matt and Scott there. After about 20 minutes of discussion, storms finally began initiating to our northwest. Matt and Scott shot out the door, and I followed.
It didn't take very long to realize that storms were struggling to get going. I halted my progress north on I-39 at the first rest stop I could find to wait and see what would happen. It was clear that capping was keeping storms from reaching their full potential. Some weak radar returns to my southwest, near La Moille, indicated that some storms were trying to get going closer to home. Not wanting to pursue the marginal severe warned storm now near DeKalb, I began to drift southward down IL-251. Just south of Mendota, I decided to find a back road to wait and watch to see if any towers would finally manage to overcome convective inhibition.
None could do it.
I finally gave up went home, getting there around 6 o'clock. At least this setup didn't bait and switch, since that would've led to a lot more wasted time and effort. On top of the capping issues, moisture return was not as good as anticipated, raising LCLs on the few storms that did get going, as well as likely cutting down on buoyancy that could have allowed cumulus towers to overcome CIN. But even though the event was marginal at best, this was the first time I had met Matt and Scott, who I now consider friends and chase partners.
SPC storm reports:
